The point of insurance is to safeguard you when things go really, really, really wrong.
Most of us get it. Your house and possessions probably won’t be incinerated by a sudden fire but if it happens, you’ll be glad you paid a premium for the benefit of an insurance payout. Without it, you’re kinda screwed.
For better or worse, Pedro is Barcelona’s insurance policy right now. That’s why it’s not hard to understand why club president Josep Maria Bartomeu talks him up at every turn, referring to him as part of “the club’s history” and saying he believes he’ll still be around at the Camp Nou after deadline day.
And now, by all accounts, it looks as if he’s on his way out. Regardless of whether he ends up at Manchester United (who have reportedly withdrawn interest), Chelsea or some other club, at around $30 million, he’s a pretty good deal.
How we got to this situation in which it’s Pedro who can leave at a pre-set price, despite being under contract, is a long and convoluted story. Put that to one side. Focus instead on the fact that he wants playing time in a season leading up to the European championships. And he no longer wants to be the guy behind the glass you break in case of emergency.
What’s tough to understand is how Barcelona could leave themselves in this situation. Particularly when they knew that because of the FIFA transfer ban, they couldn’t buy a replacement.
Sure, Pedro was a guy off the bench, and they still have one of the greatest forward lines in history: Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi. And then? And then you have several options. You can shift a midfielder (Andres Iniesta and his 31-year-old legs or Rafinha, who has hardly played there) into the front three. Which is fine, except it creates an imbalance elsewhere.
Or you can turn to what’s left on the bench. Like Munir El Haddadi, who is 19 and has scored all of five goals in 33 appearances (23 as a starter) for Barca and Barcelona B. Or Sandro Ramirez, 20 years of age, 42 combined appearances (30 starts) for the A and B team and 11 goals.
Or you can dig even deeper. Jean-Marie Dongou notched 11 goals last year for Barca B. There’s also Alen Halilovic, more of an attacking midfielder perhaps but signed with much hype last summer; he scored four goals and made 22 starts for Barca B. They are both 19.
The problem won’t come when one of the front three is out. Bartomeu could play himself alongside any two of Neymar, Suarez and Messi and odds are that Barca would still stomp over most of the opposition. The problem arises when two are out at the same time. Then, it becomes a stretch. It gets tricky.
This isn’t a case of dissing La Masia’s youngsters. But the fact of the matter is that Barcelona B — with Dongou and Halilovic for a whole season and Munir and Sandro for most of it — finished dead last in the Spanish second division. It’s not quite the equivalent of, say, Chelsea turning to Blackpool (last in the Championship last season) and expecting Nathan Delfouneso and Ishmael Miller to back up Diego Costa, but it’s not entirely far off, either.
The Barca B crew are hugely talented and they have a year of experience (mostly in the second division) under their belts. And yes, Barca B is a developmental team and you have to consider that when looking at their results. But they finished dead last in the second division. I know they have the La Masia tag but then so did Bojan, Jonathan Dos Santos, Isaac Cuenca, Jeffren and Nolito. And despite being talented, none of those guys stuck around long enough to make an impact in the first team, though some enjoyed success elsewhere.
OK, so you’re probably telling me to chill out. It’s highly improbable that two of Barcelona’s front three will be unavailable at any one time and even if it happens, no matter. It’s La Liga after all: cream puffs galore beyond the top half-dozen, and as for the Champions League, you have to really stink to go out in the group stage. They could make it to the knockout round with one hand tied behind their back, and by that stage the transfer embargo will be over and Arda Turan will be pacing the sidelines, ready to wreak havoc off the bench.
But that’s the whole point about insurance. It exists for unlikely and far-fetched, but potentially catastrophic, events. Like Messi doing his ACL and a week later, Suarez losing his head, biting someone again and getting a four-month ban. Improbable? Absolutely. But it could happen. And if it did, it would be catastrophic.
Having Pedro or another veteran striker around wouldn’t make up for the loss, just as the half-million dollar payout from the insurance company won’t compensate you for losing your home. But it will mitigate the damage.
Even the Champions League group stage wouldn’t be a foregone conclusion. What if two starting frontmen go down in September and Barca are drawn in a group with, say, Arsenal, Lyon and Roma? Are you sure it’s a cakewalk then? A stumble here, a bad refereeing call there and suddenly margins can get extremely tight.
Again, we’re talking about an extreme case, but one that could have been avoided. Was it really necessary to sell Gerard Deulofeu so quickly? Should they have hung on to Adama Traore at least until January? Why are they so keen to loan out Halilovic?
Maybe it was the elections, but evidently Barca woke up late to the message. Assuming Pedro goes, there is no insurance policy. And there’s not much they can do about it, other than perhaps swallowing their pride and seeing whether they can recall Cristian Tello from his loan at Porto. Or making some last-ditch effort to persuade Pedro to stick around until January when the transfer ban is lifted.
Look around Europe. Clubs pay lots of money for guys who sit on the bench “just in case,” particularly when it comes to attacking players. There’s a reason for it; the same reason we take out insurance. You may never need it. But the day you do, you’ll be glad you had it.
-espnfc.com